As the 2025/2026 crop season progresses, green coffee producing regions worldwide are experiencing unprecedented divergence. On one hand, structural oversupply is putting downward pressure on prices; on the other, specialty origins are seeing remarkable value appreciation. Below are the latest developments from key growing regions.
In South America, Brazil is enjoying a historic bumper crop. Benefiting from favorable weather conditions and expanded planting areas, StoneX projects Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee output to reach 75.3 million bags, a 20.8% year-on-year increase and an all-time high. At the same time, Brazil is aggressively promoting coffee cultural tourism to the Chinese market, unveiling seven coffee-themed travel routes covering core regions such as Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro – the first systematic effort to showcase the 'bean-to-cup' experience to Chinese visitors. Not all origins are so fortunate, however. Colombia saw its coffee production plunge 29% in March this year, producing just 754,000 bags, as persistent rains and adverse weather weighed on both output and exports.
In Asia, Vietnam’s 8th Specialty Coffee Competition reached a record scale, with 182 samples from 81 participants representing seven major raw material regions, of which 83% met specialty coffee standards. Domestic robusta prices remain strong, rising to VND 88,700 per kilogram as of April 29, while exchange inventories hit their lowest level in 16 months. China’s Yunnan产区 (producing region) is deepening its 'experience economy' transformation, cultivating nearly 60 specialty coffee estates and deeply integrating the coffee industry with cultural tourism and study tours.
In Africa, Kenya set a record at the African Coffee Trade Expo, with its specialty coffee beans fetching an eye-popping 35 in 2024. Tanzania, meanwhile, jumped to become Africa’s top-ranked and the world’s fourth-highest certified-quality coffee region at the AFCA Annual Exhibition. Additionally, starting May 1, China will impose zero tariffs on 53 African nations with which it has diplomatic ties, reducing import duties on coffee beans from origins such as Ethiopia from 8% to zero – opening greater room for bilateral trade.
On the sustainability front, several coffee companies including JDE Peet’s have jointly launched the 'Coffee Canopy Partnership,' using satellite mapping to chart coffee-growing areas in six East African countries in response to the EU’s anti-deforestation regulations. It is foreseeable that, driven by both supply divergence and quality competition, the global coffee producing regions are entering a new reshuffling in 2026 – large-scale supply growth suppressing prices for ordinary beans, while those regions that master quality, know-how, and brand power are gaining stronger positions along the global value chain.
