BEIJING, May 23 (Xinhua/Combined reports) – Arabica coffee futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell to 271.45 US cents per pound on May 22, the lowest level since November 2024, pressured by expectations of a record Brazilian harvest in 2026.
Brazil’s national supply company Conab projects the country’s 2026 coffee output at 66.7 million 60-kg bags, an 18% year-on-year increase, with Arabica production alone rising 28%. Minas Gerais state accounts for more than half of national output. StoneX analysis indicates a global supply surplus of about 1 million bags in 2026, reversing the previous tight balance.
However, actual harvesting in Brazil is only 3-5% complete, and a cold front in early May triggered brief frost concerns, limiting price declines. In parts of Paraná and São Paulo states, rainfall has delayed harvesting and hurt bean quality.
Performance varies sharply across origins. Colombia’s National Federation of Coffee Growers (FNC) reported a 26% year-on-year drop in production for the first seven months of the 2025/26 crop year (October 2025 – April 2026), to 6.92 million bags, with exports down 21%. Vietnam’s 2025/26 output is expected to recover to 30.8 million bags, up nearly 10% year-on-year, though “hollow beans” have appeared in some areas. In Indonesia, heavy rains have delayed harvesting, providing short-term support for Robusta prices.
On trade policy, China imposed zero tariffs on 53 African nations with which it has diplomatic relations as of May 1, 2026. Tariffs on Ethiopian coffee beans have dropped from 8% to zero, and the first direct shipment of 19.4 tonnes was delivered to Xiangtan. In the first quarter, Kunshan imported 650 million yuan worth of green coffee beans, up 43.6% year-on-year.
In the specialty coffee segment, the Alishan Estate coffee auction in Taiwan generated a total turnover of 5.52 million yuan for 1,315 kg of beans. Despite lower production, quality improved, highlighting the scarcity of top lots.
Analysts say the bumper crop in Brazil and higher output from Vietnam will continue to cap price upside, but weather risks, premiumization trends, and zero-tariff policies could still bring structural volatility.
